Un lien qui parle de l'absence de désintégration d'Elenin sans recourir à d'improbables explications:

http://eso-news.blogspot.com/2011/09/elenin-la-desintegration-est-un-effet.htmlVoici une série de diapos en anglais (désolé, déjà cité une fois, mais cela semble approprié ici) expliquant la corrélation entre les précédents tremblements de Terre du Chili et du Japon et l'alignement d'Elenin en opposition (Elenin dans l'ombre de la Terre). Cette série prévoit un tremblement de terre vers le 22 novembre 2011 d'une magnitude d'environ 9.8, jamais enregistrée dans l'histoire connue, et compare Elenin a d'autres comètes qui aurait pu lui ressembler.

**admn : les diapositives hébergées initialement chez imageschack ne sont plus disponibles**Voici certains commentaires du diaporama. Vous devriez regardez les graphiques. Ils vous permettront de mieux comprendre certains aspects (désolé, c'est en anglais).

Elenin will cause big EarthQakes around NOV 22nd, 2011. Its unique characteristics are:

**Long Period comet** (eccentricity close to 1, orbit of 11,800 years)

**Almost coplanar **(1.83 degrees of inclication from the ecliptic)

**Size of 4 kms** (estimate)

The combination of these caracteristics makes Elenin unique.

Elenin has already been involved in two major EQs when aligned

with the Earth extended magnetotail:

Chile 8.8 EQ on February 27th 2010 (Elenin at 6 AU).

Japan 9.2 EQ on March 11th 2011 (Elenin at 2 AU).

These two major EQs were rare in history. The next case will

occur around November 22nd 2011. This presentation shows why.

The theory we present assumes that:

**Comets are capacitors**: they store electric energy from the solar wind.

**Comets create a vaccum ahead of their orbit, slightly oriented towards the sun**: they are magnets that accelerate the solar wind.

Comets slowly discharge, except when crossing a magnetotail: in that very rare case the discharge is brutal due to the compression ahead.

Elenin has crossed (Chile and Japan EQs) and will cross again (next big EQs) the Earth Extended Magnetotail (EM).

An Extended Magnetotail is assumed to be the open field lines that go far behind a planet having a magnetosphere. Thanks to the increasing compression ahead, the length of the EM can become very important, several AU long.

Elenin is a LONG PERIOD COMET

After 11,800 years, it is fully charged

The Extended Magnetotail is the extension of the magnetotail, 200 Earth radii long, in the form of open field lines going on as far as the heliosphere (millions of Earth radii). All the comets attract and accelerate the solar wind ahead of their orbit. In doing so, they create a depression. Due to its proximity to the Extended Magnetotail, Elenin curves it towards the depression. Elenin can cross the EM before of after the alignement.

The comet curves all the open field lines of the magnetotail where the density of particles is 100,000 times the solar wind density. But when these particles reach the comet they accumulate ahead more and more with time until reaching a dense plasma state rapidly going upstream until the Earth. This process can take several hours. When the plasma is connected to the Earth magnetosphere, there is a sudden discharge, like a lightning, because the difference of potential between the comet and the Earth goes from the first to the second.

**Is the coma a danger?** No, because it is not solid like a comet. It won’t be able to compress the incoming particles from the magnetotail when it will cross it. The magnetotail will go through it.

Aren’t the comets dirty snowballs? It is not proved. The data from the Deep Impact mission in 2005 are just photos that scientists analysed. They observed only different brightnesses of pixels, and interpreted them as ice or dust. In fact, the details show that, for the same size of particles, the “dust” ejecta can be accurate as low as 73 tons, when scientists are not able to know whether there are 4,500 or 9,000 tons of “ice”. Many

assumptions, no evidence. Strange things happen. The stardust mission of 2011 observed fall back in the crater of the impact of 2005. If comets are dirty iceballs, it would be impossible. Big comets can have a small coma, when small comets can have a big coma. The solar wind is though the same for every comet. Only an electric model of comet can explain those two cases.

Why is Elenin so unique? There are 5,000 observed comets. Only 201 have been deeply studied. There are only 63 long period comets. Among them, Elenin is the only one which has an inclination below 3 degrees, and even 2 degrees, from the ecliptic. 95% of long period comets have an inclination of more than 10 degrees. Being coplanar is THE MAIN CONDITION to trigger a brutal discharge after a 11,800 years charge.

TOTAL COMETS OBSERVED:

**5,000**TOTAL COMETS STUDIED:

**201**TOTAL COMETS ABOVE 0,9 ECCENTRICITY (LH& H) :

**63**TOTAL COMETS LP&H BETWEEN 0 and 3 degrees:

**1 (ELENIN)**. (1,5%)

TOTAL COMETS LP&H BETWEEN 3 and 10 degrees:

**2**. (3,5%)

TOTAL COMETS LP&H BETWEEN 10 and 50 degrees:

**9**. (14%)

TOTAL COMETS LP&H ABOVE 50 degrees:

**51**. (81%)

Comets are supposed to be dirty snowballs or dirty iceballs with a coma. But what is the coma made of? NASA says that there is 85% of ice. The alternate electric model is not opposed to it but claims that comets are much more solid and are electrically charged by the solar wind. So, the coma would be made of electric particles. A scientific article about the Deep Impact Mission in 2005 on the comet Tempel 1 states that its composition is uncertain. Based on the brightness of the pixels of the images, the authors found different particles amounts with the SAME IMAGES:

**Dust**: <2 μm: between 73 and 440 tons; <2.8 μm: between 150 and 160 tons; <20 μm: between 560 and 850 tons; <200 μm: between 1,000 and 14,000 tons. LOW ESTIMATES: 1,783 tons; HIGH ESTIMATES: 15,450 tons.

Difference: 13,667 tons, i.e. 90% of difference.

**Ice**: <3 μm: between 4,500 and 9,000 tons (2005), or between 5,000 and 8,000 tons when the total of ejecta was estimated to be 10,000 tons (2007) . Difference: 4,500 tons, i.e. 50% of difference.

So, according to the versions, comets are iceballs or…electric balls:

Lowest values of dust (1,000) & highest values of ice (9,000):

**90% of ice**Highest values of dust (15,450) & lowest values of ice (4,500):

**22% of ice**Elenin is a comet like the others, except for its specific orbit. It has crossed twice the Earth Extended Magnetotail on FEB 27th 2010 (Chile 8.8 EQ) and MAR 11th 2011(Japan 9.2 EQ). On the plane of the ecliptic there are other planets. Why Elenin didn’t discharge in their Extended Magnetotail (EM)? In fact, Elenin never crossed Jupiter EM. Mars has no magnetosphere. It will never cross the Venus EM before the next crossing of the Earth EM. The moon has a very tiny magnetosphere. In addition, the constant slow wind from the sun (400 kms/s) comes mainly from the equator of the sun. It means that all the comets on the ecliptic receive a maximum of its energy with time (special case of Elenin).

The solar wind is made of 95% of protons (positive ions), but electrically neutral (enough electrons). BUT, since the atoms are divided (protons in one hand, electrons in the other), only the protons are attracted to the negatively charged comet.

Since the protons are much heavier than the electrons, there is a vaccum created by the acceleration of the protons towards the comet, and the extended magnetotail, positively charged, is easily lagged according to the comet position.

Velocity ELENIN 2.1 AU and 6 AU / magnetotail:

**7 km/s**Velocity ELENIN 0.6 AU / magnetotail:

**17.5 km/s**Velocity BOWELL 2.5 AU / magnetotail:

**21 km/s****Lag **= flexibility of time. But, for the same electric attraction of protons, the lower the angle, the more the lag will occur. Bowell is much electrically weaker than Elenin.

**Time to fill the plasma sheet**: filling the plasma sheet means that the necessary density of the plasma to create a discharge until the Earth must be large enough. We arbitrary use the following numbers to check the difference between Elenin and Bowell: 100.000 p/cc to 300.000 p/cc. 1 h/3.000.000kms; 1 AU = 50 hours; width of the magnetotail: 6300 kms x 25 Re = 157.500 kms. This width IS NOT what the comets must cross to fill the plasma sheet since the magnetotail can be lagged (the magnetotail follows the comet) before or after the perfect opposition (alignement). Let’s take 1 degrees max of lag because the difference of the resulting vector of the orbit velocities matters the most.

AVAILABLE LAG DISTANCES:

ELENIN 0.6 AU x sin(1) = 0.6 AU x 0.017 =

**1.53 millions kms**ELENIN 2.1 AU x sin(1) =

**5.35 millions kms**ELENIN 6 AU x sin(1) =

**15.30 millions kms**BOWELL 2.5 AU x sin(1) =

**6.37 millions kms** NEEDED FILLING DISTANCES:

ELENIN: 0.6 AU: 30 hours (more than a day) 108.000 s x 17.5 km/s =

**1.89 millions kms**ELENIN: 2.1 AU: 105 hours (4 days, 9 hours) 378.000 s x 7 km/s =

**2.65 millions kms**ELENIN: 6 AU: 300 hours (12 days, 12 hours) 1.080.000 s x 7 km/s =

**7.56 millions kms**BOWELL: 2.5 AU: 125 hours (3 days, 3 hours) 450.000 s x 21 km/s =

**9.45 millions kms**So, for the same electric charge (same size, same composition), when we have only 6.37 millions kms of available lag distance, we need 9.45 millions kms to fill the plasma sheet for BOWELL 2.5 AU. WE MISS 33% of a long distance! For ELENIN 0.6 AU, we miss 19% of a small distance, but this is solved by a much higher electric charge when close to the Earth. Respectively, we obtain:

Elenin 0.6 AU: 1.53 - 1.89 =

**- 0.36 millions kms** (-19%)

Elenin 2.1 AU: 5.35 - 2.65 =

**+ 2.7 millions kms**Elenin 6 AU: 15.30 - 7.56 =

**+ 7.74 millions kms**Bowell 2.5 AU: 6.37 - 9.45 =

**- 3.08 millions kms** **(- 33%)**BOWELL DOESN’T PASS THE TEST!

The velocity with respect to the magnetotail shows that when the solar wind comes from aside the comet orbit (BOWELL) this latter won’t be able to precipitate the lag of the Earth extended magnetotail. It will do it very close

to the alignement (opposition) for a very short time. On the contrary, when the comet orbit is directly opposed to the solar wind, the lag will occur much earlier and stronger than the first case, particularly when the electric charge is much stronger (ELENIN). The velocity of the Earth do not compensate enough the lag power of the comets. We didn’t take it into account because the magnetotail width is too tiny compared to the lag.

The strength of the vaccum created ahead of ELENIN accelerates and curves the extended magnetotail much more than the other case due to the direct opposition of the comet orbit to the solar wind. When the magnetotail reaches the comet, the plasma sheet is created much faster.

**PROBABILITIES**:

7 x 8.8+ quakes in 300 years. The probability that a 8.8 quake would occur (+/- 1 day) is .000191

3 x 9.2+ quakes in 300 years. The probability that a 9.2+ quake would occur (+/- 3 days) is .000191

The probability that two values of distances (6 and 2.1 AU) decrease at a rate of .35 when the corresponding magnitudes increase at the same proportion is .00005

The probability of someone correctly guessing two of these events +/- 1 & +/- 3 days, having values of distances decreasing at the same pace of the corresponding magnitude increasing would be

** one chance in 550 billions!**.